Analysis

New York would boost big four says analyst

A leading Wall Street analyst eyes increasingly optimistic noises about New York sports-betting being given the online nod.

The biggest names in US sport-betting would be the clearest winners from sports-betting getting regulatory approval from the state Senate, says Oppenheimer analyst Jed Kelly.

Should New York finally hitch itself to the mobile betting wagon, it would see its Wedge Index rating soar. 

Assuming remote registration as part of the package, it would move New York from T13th to the top 10.

Big names, big states

Kelly says DraftKings, Penn National – via Barstool Sportsbook – and FanDuel would be among those that could take advantage of the state regulating online sports-betting.

In a note published this week, Kelly said New York had the best chance of the biggest four states – California, Florida and Texas being the others – of getting online sports-betting on the statute books.

“The 2020 legislation session is being extended and there are encouraging signs that NY could legalize mobile wagering based on a state commissioned revenue study expected to be released relatively soon,” wrote Kelly.

“Additionally, NJ’s success (likely report’s another record month this week) and emerging budget deficits could be a catalyst for Cuomo to legalize.”

A move in limbo

The latest maneuver to get online sports-betting up and running comes with a Senate bill that would seek to get Senate approval for a bill. 

That would circumvent the need for a voter referendum as preferred by Governor Andrew Cuomo. The bill would authorize each of the state’s seven casinos to offer online betting.

Another wrinkle in New York is the apparent willingness of the seven land-based casinos in the state to contemplate only allowing one skin per licensee should a bill be passed

Any such move would severely limit the competitiveness of the online market.

All the casinos currently have partners for their land-based betting operations and it features many of the big brands.

  • Rivers Casino Schenectady – Rush Street Gaming
  • Tioga Downs – FanDuel (+ second online skin with PointsBet)
  • Del Lago Resort – DraftKings
  • Resorts World Catskills – bet365
  • Turning Stone Verona – Caesars
  • Point Place, Bridgeport
  • Yellow Brick Road Casinos, Chittenango – Caesars
  • Akwesasne Mohawk Casino – FOX Bet

FOMO

A survey from NY Sports Day in mid-September suggested that without online sports-betting, the state was losing out badly on tax revenues. 

It suggested New York would very quickly grow to be a market with GGR of close to $1bn. The projected tax take at the current rate of 12% would be over $100m a year.

As it stands, New York is seeing a lot of tax revenue cross state lines into New Jersey.

Observers believe the close proximity of online betting options in the neighboring state helps to explain a significant proportion of the growth there.

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Scott Longley

Scott Longley has been a journalist since the early noughties covering personal finance, sport and the gambling industry. He has worked for a number of publications including Investor's Week, Bloomberg Money, Football First, EGR and GamblingCompliance.com. He now writes for online and print titles across a wide range of sectors.

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